Lithium Mining & Refining

What it is

Lithium for batteries comes from hard-rock spodumene, mostly mined in Australia, from brines in South America and China, and from lepidolite. It is refined into lithium carbonate and hydroxide, the raw material for cathode makers. Ganfeng cites a forecast of 1.975 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent supply in 2026, up 27%, of which spodumene is 54%, brine 38% and lepidolite 8% (2026 interim report, p. 13).

Where China stands

Two Chinese companies, each with mines abroad, anchor this stage:

• Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业, 002460.SZ) says it is China's largest lithium compound supplier and the world's largest lithium metal producer. It draws on Goulamina in Mali (first-half concentrate output 233,800 tonnes), Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina (19,000 tonnes of carbonate) and Mount Marion in Australia (Ganfeng 2026 interim report, pp. 12, 21).
• Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业, 002466.SZ) controls the Greenbushes mine in Australia, which produced about 738,000 tonnes of concentrate in the half, and holds 21.90% of Chile's SQM (Tianqi 2026 interim report, pp. 7, 14).

The resources that matter to both are abroad. Tianqi's own Chinese mine, Yajiang Cuola in Sichuan, has a resource of 632,400 tonnes of carbonate equivalent, but its concentrator was only at the preliminary feasibility stage, with design due to start in the second half of 2026 (p. 14).

The 2026 price swing

Tianqi describes battery-grade carbonate spot prices as going from about ¥117,000 a tonne at the start of 2026 to about ¥180,000 in January, down to about ¥132,000 in February, above ¥200,000 in May and back near ¥140,000 in July. It cites supply worries, storage demand, export changes and a Zimbabwe suspension of lithium ore and concentrate exports as drivers (Tianqi report, pp. 27, 28). Ganfeng cites Fastmarkets data that spodumene concentrate delivered to China was US$2,150 to US$2,270 a tonne in June, up 35% to 45% on the start of the year (Ganfeng report, p. 14).

The profits show the effect. Ganfeng's revenue rose 175.8% to ¥23.10bn and it made ¥4.26bn, against a loss of ¥531m a year earlier. Tianqi's rose 153.3% to ¥12.24bn with ¥4.24bn of profit, against ¥84m. Tianqi's lithium ore earned a 74.2% gross margin and its lithium compounds 57.4%, while Ganfeng's lithium products earned 42.4% and its batteries 12.4% (Ganfeng p. 28, Tianqi p. 39).

Our view: this stage is a price business more than a volume business. Both producers' profits are driven by lithium prices that moved by more than 70% within a few months, so their results say more about the price than about how well each is run, and Ganfeng itself lists price swings as a risk (p. 39).

What to watch

• Supply response. Tianqi says restarts at overseas mines and imports arriving in July pulled prices back from the May peak (p. 27).
• Mine expansions. Greenbushes' third chemical-grade plant, Goulamina's second phase and Cauchari-Olaroz phase two are the main additions the filings name (pp. 14, 21).
• Policy. Tianqi names a change to the consumption tax on lithium batteries and Jiangxi mining-licence renewals as price drivers (p. 27).